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My Analysis of the NT42 Inventory as of 3/15

Clock Work vs the other NT 42’s


Summary


I’ve tracked the inventory of NT42’s since I decided to sell. Numerically, the current inventory of 42’s that can compete for Clock Work’s buyer is extremely low, just 4 units. That’s about a third of what it was late summer last year and that was about half of what it was the season before. Obviously there are more 42’s exiting inventory (selling) than entering (being listed), which tracks well with industry comments about all boat types from brokers that have approached me thru CW’s website.


If I correlate the arrival rate of enquiries about CW (escalating markedly over the last 2 weeks) in to this trend, I would conclude inventory is reducing (entirely rearward looking effect), and inventory-exit forces at work on 42’s are increasing (entirely forward looking effect). Putting those together, I'd say the market for for 42’s and CW is strong today and will be stronger tomorrow.


I’m not formally extending this or diving deep on American Tugs but that wouldn't change a lot (2 units east coast US, 500 and 850, just the “EPA engines”).


Details


Remember… everything here represents nothing but my opinion. Do your own research and thinking. West coast boats were not formally inventoried. Most of my information came from YW.. THE reason I ended up writing my own description is that every boat brokers put up reads like every other boat they put up. Cut and paste. This implying I advise anyone to assume my (our.. you have the same ones) data sources are likely unreliable.


For the 4 potentially competing 42’s on the market:

  • 2 in the northeast - both 2017’s, priced at $875 and $900k. Electronic engine controls on both.

  • 1 in FL is a 2004 listed as having the simpler, all-mechanical engine (i.e. Cummins 6CT) and is only $349k. Truly a fantastic price. But with an very unusual-to-me at least non-Nordic Tug looking flybridge on the back edge of the pilot house, rather than the usual front end position. My records indicate it’s been on the market at that price since last July.

  • Another 2004 in is also an all-mechanical 6CT. $559k in FL. Non-flybridge. Listed as having had an engine swap. My records show this boat or one massively similar as being marketed by the same broker in March 2019 as a “2004/2018” broker-refurbished unit listed at $795k.

  • What about new? 2020 figures as related to me by someone inside that loop were.. new, 7-figure (electronic/elevated-complexity engine) models will take ~20 months with an initial promise of less than that.

Given that these 4 boats define the remaining totality of the current competitive choice for an east-coaster who wants a well-appointed/cared-for 42, as of this date, Clock Work is exceptionally well positioned. Particularly when considered on a feature/price-point/condition basis basis. Even more particularly when considered on a Functionality/$ or projected mechanical reliability basis.


Discussion


The two 42's in NE are near the very top of the historic used NT price range and about double what CW is listing for. I don't see them competing for my buyer and will appeal to more traditional "new is better" thinking. I don't see that buyer giving design complexity impact on system reliability even a first thought. There's room for everyone. I will offer that a buyer of CW could throw in 100% more on top of what I'm listing it for and create an actual super-boat still with reduced mechanical vulnerability.. so I do see CW competing for their buyer. But I'd just buy it and enjoy it. The whole idea is more fun, less fixing. The two in FL seem on the surface at least to perhaps be challenging to sell based on the long times on the market. I don't think the lesser priced one and CW are competing for the same buyer in either direction though if there is any asymmetry in that at all, they're probably competing slightly more for CW's buyer than vice versa.


As to the other FL 42, I don't know the story is behind the engine swap and refurb. I'd be curious. Without that, or its extended time on the market, it would to me represent the traditional core on NT42 inventory for the past couple of years that I've been used to seeing. Of the four currently in the inventory, it’s the only one I would say competes in any way for the same buyer as CW. Comparing, in price/feature terms…

  • CW is priced $70k lower at $489k.

  • For a buyer in the northeast, add another ~$7500 in delivery dollars on to the difference.

  • I don’t see a crane or a dinghy/motor.

  • The ad refers to new bow/stern thrusters but the thruster controls appear to me to be non-proportional and so CW has another feature/usability advantage of “dock hold” functionality.

  • Big picture as I see it, CW has ~$100k price advantage for the NE boater, a flybridge ($50k option), dock hold and no motor swap to explain.

For the buyer who would be typical of the kind that has substantially bought down the core NT 42 inventory over the last year, it is not unreasonable to assert that the strongest boat on price/feature basis, projected mechanical reliability (you don't have to fix what isn't there in the first place) is Clock Work.

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